Author: Marius Mitrofan Broker of Record

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As someone who’s spent over two decades guiding clients through Toronto’s real estate landscape, I’ve seen firsthand how construction costs shape our market. Recent data highlights a growing concern: with condo starts slowing, Toronto faces increased sensitivity to rising material costs—especially as trade tensions drive up prices. The latest federal construction index reports a 2.1% quarterly increase in fabricated metal costs, and structural steel is up 1.8%. For a city that still leans heavily on steel-intensive development, these numbers matter. With fewer new condos breaking ground, our market feels the impact of these supply-side pressures more acutely. The takeaway for buyers and sellers? Toronto’s condo market is navigating a period of heightened vulnerability to price shocks, in large part due to construction cost dynamics. Staying informed on these trends is essential for making strategic moves in today’s market.

Toronto’s real estate market is showing subtle shifts as we move through mid-Q3—home prices edged down just 0.1% month-over-month, signaling more of a gentle pause than any dramatic reset. Resale activity was also 2.1% lower year-over-year, confirming that market momentum remains softer than last year, even with prices holding relatively steady. What stands out to me in the latest numbers is the gradual adjustment underway: prices are essentially flat, and sales volumes are still below last year’s pace. This cooling period fits a broader trend I’ve seen across the GTA—a moment of recalibration rather than a sharp turn. Looking ahead, most forecasts anticipate a period of stabilization through 2026 and into 2027, though Toronto’s recovery will likely remain uneven compared to other regions. For those navigating these conditions, strategic pricing and preparation are more important than ever to maximize results. Drawing on over two decades of experience and a hands-on, boutique approach, I’ve found that thoughtful adjustments—rather than dramatic changes—often yield the best outcomes for both buyers and sellers in markets like this.

Noticing some significant shifts in the GTA condo market, particularly for micro-units under 500 sq-ft. As of Mid-Q3 2026, the average home sale price in the GTA came in at $993K—down about 3% from last year, signaling a market that’s become more favorable for buyers overall. Condos averaged $618K, slipping below last year’s mark, but it’s the smallest condos that have taken the hardest hit in value. Micro-condos have proven especially challenging to sell, as buyers are prioritizing larger spaces—options that are now within closer reach. In Early-Q3, approximately 98% of GTA neighbourhoods with five or more condo sales saw units selling below list price, giving buyers uncommon leverage in their negotiations. Single-family homes also reflected this trend, with underbidding in about 92% of neighbourhoods, but condos are feeling the pressure more acutely as investor demand tapers off and certain units stay on the market longer. With over two decades of navigating these market cycles and helping clients make strategic decisions, I’ve found that a tailored approach—pricing, staging, and negotiation—makes all the difference in a shifting landscape.

Toronto continues to make its mark globally, ranking 20th out of 1,000 cities in a 2026 international index. Our city’s strong economic fundamentals and skilled workforce keep us solidly in the top 25, which is no small feat on the world stage. That said, the same index highlights a challenge many of my clients feel firsthand: housing affordability. With Toronto’s median multiple near 7.5 in 2026, we remain among the least affordable major markets surveyed. Residents here are dedicating a larger portion of their income to housing than almost anywhere else. Ongoing supply shortages and slower housing starts, projected to continue into 2026, are a major reason why affordability remains out of reach for many. As someone who’s guided over 700 families and investors through the GTA’s evolving market, I know how crucial it is to balance smart strategy with realistic expectations. Navigating these conditions takes both experience and a tailored approach—two things I’ve built my practice around.