We’re seeing a dramatic shift in Toronto’s housing market: inflation-adjusted home prices have dropped by nearly 10% year-over-year, marking the most significant reset among major global cities. Benchmark values are following suit—Toronto’s composite home-price measure is down about 5% annually (seasonally adjusted), bringing the average to around $931,000. While central condo affordability looks better at first glance, once you factor in mortgage interest, maintenance, taxes, and the risk premium, it’s still considerably more expensive than renting. For those of us navigating this market, there’s a critical window right now: prices have softened, but if demand rebounds before supply catches up, things could tighten quickly. The reality is, to bring affordability back to 2019 levels, Toronto needs to increase annual housing starts by at least 50% over the next decade—a clear sign of the supply challenge ahead. Having spent over two decades guiding clients through both surges and resets, I know how important it is to combine strategic pricing with a hands-on, results-driven approach in moments like these.
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GTA Homebuyer Competition Weakens Further | Most homes don’t sell for top dollar by accident.
We’re seeing GTA homebuyer competition continue to soften as we move through mid-Q3. Only 2% of qualifying neighbourhoods entered overbidding territory—down from 3% earlier in the quarter. Out of 267 neighbourhoods, 97% were underbid and just 1% sold at asking, a clear sign that bidding wars have become the exception, not the rule. The gap between condos and single-family homes also kept narrowing: 95% of single-family neighbourhoods and 98% of condo areas saw homes selling below asking. An economist recently called this one of the quietest periods for GTA real estate, and that’s translated into more negotiating room for buyers. Of the 4,200 homes sold in mid-Q3, 79% traded below asking, up slightly from 78% earlier. As someone who’s managed negotiations through every kind of market, I know how critical pricing strategy and negotiation are to achieving the best outcome—especially when competition shifts. If you’re considering a move or just want to understand what these changes could mean for you, it pays to have an experienced, hands-on advocate in your corner.
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Home affordability finds its footing, but rising rates could change that
There’s been a noticeable shift in home affordability across Canada, with the average five-year fixed mortgage rate climbing to 4.55% in August. Interestingly, this uptick has had minimal impact on monthly payments for now. The real driver behind improved affordability has been the decline in home prices — especially in key markets like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montréal. As someone who has negotiated hundreds of transactions throughout the GTA, I’ve seen firsthand how quickly market conditions can change. While current trends may offer buyers a welcome window of opportunity, it’s important to stay mindful of how rising rates could influence the landscape ahead. Strategic decisions and timing remain essential for those looking to make the most of today’s evolving market.
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Happy Thanksgiving | Most homes don’t sell for top dollar by accident.
The perfect opportunity to embrace your inner "foodie" and unbutton your pants at the dinner table!In Canada, post-Thanksgiving is all about creative cranberry sauce solutions. Cranberry sauce pancakes, anyone?It's that time when multiple ovens are a blessing. Turkey, pies, casseroles – less stress!
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Small-Scale Infill Is (Finally) Showing Up In Toronto’s Housing Data
Toronto’s housing landscape is evolving, and the numbers are finally reflecting it: small-scale infill projects—think accessory dwelling units and multiplexes—now make up about 10% of new housing starts nationwide. This surge is a direct result of recent zoning reforms and a slowdown in single-detached home construction. For GTA homeowners and investors, this shift opens the door to new opportunities for property enhancement and long-term value. Having guided clients through hundreds of transactions and countless renovation projects, I’ve seen firsthand how these types of additions can transform both individual properties and entire neighborhoods. Strategic approaches to infill can maximize your property’s potential while keeping pace with Toronto’s changing market.
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Industry Updates: Single-Family Sales Rise, Resale Supply Tightens, Cultural Programming Expands
This week’s market update brings some noteworthy shifts for those navigating real estate in the Greater Toronto Area. We’ve seen single-family home sales pick up, fueled by the expanded HST rebate—while condo activity remains relatively subdued. At the same time, the resale supply is tightening, which could have upward pressure on prices. Housing starts have dipped slightly, and Toronto’s new AI building permit pilot signals a tech-forward step for the city. With over two decades guiding clients through evolving markets and more than 700 successful transactions across the GTA, I know firsthand how nuanced changes like these can impact both buyers and sellers. Whether you’re considering your next move or looking to maximize your current investment, a tailored strategy and a hands-on approach make all the difference.
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Toronto Condo Supply Faces Tariff Exposure | Most homes don’t sell for top dollar by accident.
As someone who’s spent over two decades guiding clients through Toronto’s real estate landscape, I’ve seen firsthand how construction costs shape our market. Recent data highlights a growing concern: with condo starts slowing, Toronto faces increased sensitivity to rising material costs—especially as trade tensions drive up prices. The latest federal construction index reports a 2.1% quarterly increase in fabricated metal costs, and structural steel is up 1.8%. For a city that still leans heavily on steel-intensive development, these numbers matter. With fewer new condos breaking ground, our market feels the impact of these supply-side pressures more acutely. The takeaway for buyers and sellers? Toronto’s condo market is navigating a period of heightened vulnerability to price shocks, in large part due to construction cost dynamics. Staying informed on these trends is essential for making strategic moves in today’s market.
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Toronto Home Prices Edge Lower | Most homes don’t sell for top dollar by accident.
Toronto’s real estate market is showing subtle shifts as we move through mid-Q3—home prices edged down just 0.1% month-over-month, signaling more of a gentle pause than any dramatic reset. Resale activity was also 2.1% lower year-over-year, confirming that market momentum remains softer than last year, even with prices holding relatively steady. What stands out to me in the latest numbers is the gradual adjustment underway: prices are essentially flat, and sales volumes are still below last year’s pace. This cooling period fits a broader trend I’ve seen across the GTA—a moment of recalibration rather than a sharp turn. Looking ahead, most forecasts anticipate a period of stabilization through 2026 and into 2027, though Toronto’s recovery will likely remain uneven compared to other regions. For those navigating these conditions, strategic pricing and preparation are more important than ever to maximize results. Drawing on over two decades of experience and a hands-on, boutique approach, I’ve found that thoughtful adjustments—rather than dramatic changes—often yield the best outcomes for both buyers and sellers in markets like this.
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Ontario Micro-Condos Face Steep Depreciation | Most homes don’t sell for top dollar by accident.
Noticing some significant shifts in the GTA condo market, particularly for micro-units under 500 sq-ft. As of Mid-Q3 2026, the average home sale price in the GTA came in at $993K—down about 3% from last year, signaling a market that’s become more favorable for buyers overall. Condos averaged $618K, slipping below last year’s mark, but it’s the smallest condos that have taken the hardest hit in value. Micro-condos have proven especially challenging to sell, as buyers are prioritizing larger spaces—options that are now within closer reach. In Early-Q3, approximately 98% of GTA neighbourhoods with five or more condo sales saw units selling below list price, giving buyers uncommon leverage in their negotiations. Single-family homes also reflected this trend, with underbidding in about 92% of neighbourhoods, but condos are feeling the pressure more acutely as investor demand tapers off and certain units stay on the market longer. With over two decades of navigating these market cycles and helping clients make strategic decisions, I’ve found that a tailored approach—pricing, staging, and negotiation—makes all the difference in a shifting landscape.
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Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report
The latest Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report highlights a familiar challenge across our major Canadian cities: the housing supply gap remains stubborn—except in Calgary and Edmonton. Construction is slowing down at a pace that threatens the affordability so many buyers and renters rely on. While rental developments continue to drive new inventory, the lack of robust condo construction is making it harder for aspiring homeowners to find their place in the market. As someone who’s navigated over 700 successful GTA transactions, I see firsthand how limited ownership options can impact families and investors alike. Boosting housing starts and investing in better infrastructure are essential steps forward if we want to create real opportunities for those hoping to enter or move up in the market.
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